Modeling Spatio-temporal Patterns of
Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations

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How to predict where and when MPB outbreaks may occur is critical. Researchers with the University of Alberta's Departments of Renewable Resources, Biological Sciences, Mathematical & Statistical Sciences and the Pacific Forestry Centre are collaborating to develop a model for the spatio-temporal pattern of MPB infestation. This study is significant since it will develop models and tools for:


Predicting where and when outbreaks may occur
Describing the dispersal patterns of the beetle and the effect of dispersal on infestation, and
Identifying the time series hotspots and coldspots of outbreaks and the conditions that contribute to the occurrence of these spots


The models developed will be mechanism-driven and will be parameterized and tested using three sets of data. The first set is the detailed lodgepole pine stand data collected by a stem-mapping technique. The other two sets of data are the long-term MPB outbreak records and environmental conditions, collected over a large-scale landscape in British Columbia.


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