Latest News

About CAMQ

Information for Authors

Editorial Board

Browse CAMQ Online

Subscription and Pricing

CAMQ Contacts

CAMQ Home

 

Volume 17,     Number 4,     Winter 2009

 

MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR NATURAL
GAS FORECASTING
STEVEN R. VITULLO, RONALD H. BROWN
GEORGE F. CORLISS AND BRIAN M. MARX

Abstract. It is vital for natural gas Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) to forecast their customers' natural gas demand accurately. A significant error on a single very cold day can cost the customers of the LDC millions of dollars. This paper looks at the financial implication of forecasting natural gas, the nature of natural gas forecasting, the factors that impact natural gas consumption, and describes a survey of mathematical techniques and practices used to model natural gas demand. Many of the techniques used in this paper currently are implemented in a software GasDayTM, which is currently used by 24 LDCs throughout the United States, forecasting about 20% of the total U.S. residential, commercial, and industrial consumption. Results of GasDay'sTM forecasting performance also is presented.

 

Download PDF Files
 
(Subscribers Only)

© 2006-2010 Canadian Applied Mathematics Quarterly (CAMQ)