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Volume 17,     Number 2,     Summer 2009

 

COMPETITIVE INTERFERENCE BETWEEN
INFLUENZA VIRAL STRAINS
SEYED M. MOGHADAS, CHRISTOPHER S. BOWMAN
AND JULIEN ARINO

Abstract. We propose a modelling framework for investigating the dynamics of competition between immunologically-related influenza viral strains in the absence of pre-existing immunity. Assuming that the host immune system will mount partial protection (cross-immunity) against one strain by virtue of having interacted with the other through exposure, we discuss the conditions for the occurrence of two distinct waves of infection during a single epidemic episode. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the possibility of infection waves with respect to the protection level induced by the first strain, and the time-lag for evolving the second strain. We propose directions for future work that involves extension of the model to include vaccination.

 

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